R值在华东地区地震预测中的研究  

Research on the R value in earthquake forecast of East China

作　　者：梁久亮[1] 李敏莉[1] 刘泽民[1] 郑先进[1] 沈小七[1] 黄显良[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省地震局,中国合肥230031

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2008年第4期7-11,共5页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：安徽省地震局合同制课题

摘　　要：利用华东地区1970年以来的地震目录,对华东地区、郯庐断裂带100km范围、2007年度划定为地震危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区及安徽地区,以地震活动性参数群体异常变化项目数为参量,进行相应的均值之差与标准差统计分析,提取其变化率R(李永莉等,2003),即通过统计计算地震活动性参数异常项目月变化率R值,观察R值变化特征。结果发现,华东地区、安徽地区中强震前R值异常表现为中短期异常特征,郯庐断裂带100km范围内及本年度划定为危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区,R值异常表现为中长期异常特征。Using the earthquake catalogue of East China since 1970, we analyze the mean value and standard deviation of the anomaly item numbers of the seismic parameters to get the R value to count monthly variety ratio of anomaly items of seismic parameters. We found that, the R value shows mid-long term anomaly before medium-strong earthquake in East China and Anhui area, but mid-long term anomaly in the 100 kilometers area around the Tanlu fault and the joint area of Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui Provinces which was delimited as earthquake danger zone this year.

关 键 词：月变化率 异常项目 地震活动性 华东地区 地震危险区 中强震 短临异常 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]