时间序列分析在土壤墒情预测中的应用研究  

Application of Time Series Analysis in Soil Moisture Forecast

作　　者：张和喜[1] 杨静[1] 方小宇[1] 房军[1] 冯诚[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵阳550002

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2008年第4期82-84,共3页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：贵州省水利厅主要农作物灌溉专项资金项目

摘　　要：土壤水分的动态模拟是土壤墒情监测及预报的重要内容,采用时间序列的线形模型进行土壤水分时间序列的拟合与趋势预测。在建立模型后,用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明时间序列线形模型能较好地拟合与预测土壤墒情的变化趋势,可为干旱研究及其治理提供依据。Soil moisture dynamics simulation is an important item of soil moisture monitoring and forecasting.In this paper,time series analysis linear model is used to forecast the change trend of soil moisture.By comparing the measured value with the estimated value,it is showed that the time series analysis linear model can preferably fit soil moisture time series,and provides a foundation for the drought research.

关 键 词：时间序列 土壤墒情 预测预报 

分 类 号：S152.7[农业科学—土壤学]