三峡库区危岩稳定性影响因素敏感性分析  

The Sensitivity Analysis of Factors Affecting Three Gorges Reservoir Perilous Rock Belt

作　　者：苟海军[1] 袁继国[1] 何伟[1] 范永贵 代世伟 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,西安710048 [2]青海省环境地质调查局,西安810007

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2008年第8期47-50,共4页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：重庆市科学基金重点资助项目(035679)

摘　　要：以三峡库区庙子梁危岩带为例,通过对危岩块体具体分析,量化稳定性指标。运用均匀试验设计方法对危岩块体进行因素敏感性分析,建立回归方程,计算偏相关性系数,确定稳定性指标与因素间的相关关系,主控因素及各因素对稳定性评价指标的贡献大小,对实际条件下的危岩参数进行网格尝试法试验条件优化,评定了最优和最不利参数水平组合。根据稳定性分析结果提出了具体的治理措施。The case of the perilous rock belt of Miaoziliang, which located in the region of the Three Gorges Reservoir, was analyzed quantitatively according to the system of indices. The sensitive elements affecting the rock belt was studied by means of Uniform Design Method, and then the regress equations and ascertaining the partial correlation coefficient of stability as well as the main control factors were detected. It also evaluates the relative contribution to stability and optimizes the local condition parameter with Grid Experiment Model, which assesses the optimum and the worst case rate combination. Aimed at the foregoing discussion, the concrete measures had been put forward.

关 键 词：卸荷裂隙 危岩稳定性 敏感性分析 均匀设计 

分 类 号：P692[天文地球—地质学]