基于MATLAB的湘江流域工业固体废物灰色预测  

Grey Forecasting on Industrial Solid Waste in Xiangjiang Valley Based on MATLAB

作　　者：李惠萌[1] 袁兴中[1] 曾光明[1] 文涛[1] 粟银[1] 李莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学环境科学与工程学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2008年第8期136-140,共5页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：湖南省科技发展项目(06SK2012)

摘　　要：对灰色预测原理及其建模步骤作了系统介绍。借助MATLAB软件建立等维灰数递补残差修正动态模型预测湘江流域未来10年工业固体废物年产量,以期为湘江流域今后工业固体废物的管理、污染防治工作提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)用此模型进行预测,相对误差均在5%以下,预测精度较高,取得了较理想的预测效果;(2)湘江流域未来10年工业固体废物年产量预测值呈指数趋势增长,年增长率为8%～12%,到2016年湘江流域工业固体废物年产量预计将达到7645.01万t。Grey forecast theory as well as the model building was introduced. In virtue of MATLAB program, the model of dynamic forecasting with recursive compensation by grey numbers of identical dimensions and remnant difference correction was used to forecast yearly output of industrial solid waste in Xiangjiang Valley in next 10 years so as to provide scientific basis for future industrial solid waste management and pollution treatment in the Valley. Results indicated that the model obtained highly precise forecast result, with relative errors below 5%. Yearly output of industrial solid waste in next 10 years will be increased by exponential trend, with yearly increasing rate of 8%-12%. Output in 2016 is expected to be 76.4501 million tons.

关 键 词：湘江流域 工业固体废物 灰色GM(1 1)模型 等维灰数递补残差修正动态预测 MATLAB 

分 类 号：X825[环境科学与工程—环境工程]