基于灰色系统理论的土地集约利用评价研究——以江苏省南通市为例  

Evaluation Study on the Intensive Use of Land Based on Gray Theory

作　　者：张晶[1] 濮励杰[1] 符蓉[1] 何序君[2] 范成[2] 吴琼[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游学系,江苏南京210093 [2]南京大学城市与区域规划系,江苏南京210093 [3]南京大学工商管理系,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第20期8749-8751,8772,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家基础科学与人才培养基金(J0630535);南京大学"科研创新训练计划"项目"GDP的增长与城市土地集约利用的关系研究"联合资助

摘　　要：开展土地集约利用研究,提高集约利用程度,缓解城市建设用地的需求与有限土地供给的矛盾,是目前迫切需要解决的问题。运用灰色系统理论,以地均国内生产总值（GDP）预测为例,建立了南通市地均GDP预测的灰色模型,并预测了2008～2020年南通市的地均GDP。利用灰色关联度分析,探讨了南通市地均GDP受地均固定资产投资、地均建设用地非农产值、建设用地增量、建设用地面积影响的程度,并提出了该市土地集约利用的调整方向。灰色系统理论的应用可为今后土地集约利用评价提供一种新的研究思路,对同类研究具有一定的借鉴作用。Such problems needed to be resolved immediately as carrying out potential evaluation research into intensified utilization of urban land,improving standard of urban land＇s intensified utilization,and solving the contradiction between the demand for urban construction land and limit of land supply.Taking GDP per area forecast for example,the Gray model on GDP per area forecast in Nantong City was established based on Gray System Theory,and the GDP per area in Nantong City in 2008-2020 were forecasted.Gray relational grade analysis was used to discuss the the effect of the investment in fixed assets per area,the non agricultural output per area,the area of construction sites and the increased area of construction sites on GDP per area.And the direction of intensive use of land was put forward.Gray relational grade analysis could provide new idea for the evaluation of intensive use of land and could be used for reference to the similar study.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 土地集约利用 地均GDP预测 灰色关联度分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]