电网连锁故障的概率分析模型及风险评估  

Probability Analysis Model and Risk Assessment of Power System Cascading Failure

作　　者：邓慧琼[1] 艾欣[1] 余洋洋[1] 张艳[1] 刘昊[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]北京电力公司调度通信中心,北京市西城区100031

出　　处：《电网技术》2008年第15期41-46,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：按照连锁故障发生、发展的物理过程,并结合各个阶段事件的概率特点,建立了一种电网连锁故障的概率分析方法,对连锁故障的各个环节进行了详细的概率描述。通过对连锁故障过程的模拟,用节点电压越限、出现孤立负荷等指标对连锁故障进行风险评估,找到系统的薄弱环节。采用根据以上理论编写的电力系统连锁故障模拟及风险评估软件,对IEEE 39节点系统进行了算例演示,进一步说明了所提概率分析模型和风险评估方法的合理性。According to physical process during the occurrence and development of. cascading failure and Combining with the probabilistic characters of various stages of the event, a probabilistic analysis method for power network cascading failure is established by which the detailed probabilistic description to various links of cascading failure can be conducted. By means of simulating cascading failure process, the indices such as voltage out of limit and occurrence of isolated load etc. are adopted to perform risk assessment of cascading failure to find the vulnerable spot of power system. Applying the simulation and risk assessment software for power system cascading failure, which is programmed based on the above-mentioned theory, to IEEE 39-bus test system, the reasonableness of the proposed probabilistic analysis model and risk assessment method is validated.

关 键 词：电力系统 连锁故障 概率分析 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]