在役压力管道风险因素敏感性模糊分析技术研究——压力管道风险管理理论及其关键技术研究(7)  

Study on Fuzzy Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Factors of Pressure Pipeline in Use——Theory and Key Technology of Pressure Pipeline Risk Management(7)

作　　者：刘展[1,2] 俞树荣[1] 马欣[1] 王智平[1] 李建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学甘肃省有色金属新材料国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730050 [2]甘肃省质量技术监督局,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《石油化工设备》2008年第B08期1-4,共4页Petro-Chemical Equipment

基　　金：国家质检总局科研基金(国质检2003-354);甘肃省自然科学基金(ZS021-A25-016-G);甘肃省建设厅科研基金资助项目

摘　　要：介绍了压力管道风险因素敏感性分析的基本原理,对比研究了普通敏感性综合决策和模糊敏感性综合决策两种敏感性分析的基本方法,认为用区间估计的模糊敏感性综合决策分析方法比用点估计的普通敏感性综合决策得到的结果有更高的可靠性。A new method for decision-making in pipeline risk analysis is proposed. Basic theory in sensitivity analysis of pressure pipeline risks is introduced and comprehensive decision on general sensitivity analysis is compared with that on fuzzy sensitivity analysis. It concludes that decision on fuzzy sensitivity analysis based on interval value is more reliable than the general decision on sensitivity analysis based on point value.

关 键 词：压力管道 风险因素 敏感性 模糊分析 

分 类 号：TQ055.81[化学工程]