人群拥挤踩踏事故后果微观建模及模拟分析  

Microscopic modeling and simulation analysis for crowd crushing and trampling accident consequence

作　　者：张青松[1] 刘金兰[1] 赵国敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]天津城市建设学院能源与机械工程系,天津300384

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第4期164-168,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20070420117);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70373031)

摘　　要：针对人群拥挤踩踏事故风险理论(4阶段)中传统数学模型难以解决的定量问题,分析大型公共场所高密度拥挤人群中的个体受力,依据牛顿第二定律和经典"社会力"模型对人群中的个体受力进行建模。本文提出了引起人群拥挤踩踏事故后果即人员伤亡的"拥挤力"的概念,并在"磁场力"模型基础上依据动量定理构建了拥挤人群中的个体受力微观模拟模型。基于此微观模拟模型并结合多智能体技术开发了人群拥挤踩踏事故模拟系统,对正常及紧急状况下的奥运赛场出口人群疏散模拟的结果表明,该模拟系统不仅能够直观地表示人群拥挤踩踏事故后果,而且还可通过滞留人数随疏散时间的变化情况了解人群疏散状况。该微观模拟模型及模拟系统对大型公共建筑的性能化设计、人群安全疏散及管理等有指导意义。The given paper intends to present our microscopic modeling and simulation analysis for the consequences resulting from crowd crushing and trampling accidents. As is known, the traditional mathematic model is unable to solve the assessment problem in this way. Coming from the above necessity, this paper tries to build up a microscopic pedestrian simulation model based on the force analysis of the individuals in a densely populated enclosed space. The suggested model emphasizes the micro-modeling in analyzing the causes of the mass tramping casualty in the emergency evacuation process, which can be solved by means of the momentum theorem with ＂magnetic force＂ model in the form of ＂crushing force.＂ And, in turn, we have developed the mass-crowd crushing and trampling system based on the multi-agent technology. The analysis over the mass-crowd simulated evacuation of the Olympic stadium exits under normal and emergency conditions indicates that the system here mentioned not only calculates the risk consequence of the crowd crushing accidents, but also through contrast and comparison of the relations of evacuation time and evacuation crowd number （stranded crowd number） to account for the evacuation situation, and, what is more, to validate the conclusion drawn by using the SCM. From the above illustration, it can be seen that the microscopic simulation model and simulation System is indeed of great significance for the large-scale public buildings designated for public performances or gatherings and emergent evacuation of audiences from them.

关 键 词：安全管理工程 微观模拟模型 人群拥挤踩踏 事故模拟 多智能体 安全疏散 

分 类 号：X928.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]