铁路设备关键零部件的可靠性分析模型及其应用研究  

Research on Reliability Analysis Model for Key Components and Parts of Railway Equipment and Its Application

作　　者：王灵芝[1] 徐宇工[1] 张家栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学机械与电子控制工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2008年第4期93-97,共5页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：北京交通大学"十五"专项科技基金(2005KZ005)

摘　　要：针对我国铁路设备运营和维修可能面临的实际问题,提出利用相关系数法和最小二乘法相结合对现场数据进行三参数威布尔分布拟合的计算方法,在此基础上建立了关键零部件可靠性分析模型。利用平均秩次法对现场随机截尾数据进行预处理。分析2种最小二乘法:y关于x及x关于y的最小二乘回归法,并对这2种回归方法进行分析比较。通过实例验证得出,本文提出的模型可以准确地描述设备在实际运行过程中的故障情况,计算简单,便于编程实现。应用此模型可以得到设备各子系统的可靠度分布,为设备修程修制的改进提供科学依据。In view of the practical problems which may be faced in operation and maintenance of railway equip- ment, by combination of the correlation coefficient and least-squares methods, the three-parameter Weibull dis- tribution method is put forward to handle field data. On this basis, the reliability analysis model for key compo- nents and parts is established. Random truncation data are pre-processed by the mean order method. The least- squares regression of y on x and least-squares regression of x on y are analyzed. The result indicates that when Sy/S~ is larger than one, the least-squares regression of x on y tends to be better. Practical examples verify that the proposed model is able to provide accurate description of failures of equipment in operation and facili- tate simple calculation and easy programming. Applying the model ,distribution of reliability of subsystems of railway equipment is obtained, thus laying scientific foundation for maintenance strategy modification of railway equipment.

关 键 词：可靠性分析 参数估计 相关系数 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：U283.2[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]