近20年来中国电力需求的行业与地域结构分析  

An Analysis on the Industrial and Regional Demand Structure of Electric Power in Recent 20 Years in China

作　　者：康国栋[1] 孙根年[1] 王美红[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2008年第8期73-78,96,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目<中国西部林草植被生态调节功能与生态服务价值测评研究>(40271052)

摘　　要：采用行业结构和地域结构相结合的方法,分析了近20年来中国电力消费需求的变化,结果发现:随着国民经济的发展,电力消费量也呈同步增长态势;就四大行业的电力消耗来看,1986-2005年,第一产业的耗电量变化不大,城乡居民和第三产业耗电量都有所增长,第二产业是中国耗电量最大的行业,且年增长率较大;通过对中国31个省区人均电力消费量的分析,将其划分为6个等级,结果表明人均电力消费量与人均GDP呈正相关关系。在此基础上,以人口和人均GDP为变量,建立了中国电力发展的地域需求模型,发现城市化水平和经济发展程度是中国各省区电力需求的关键增长因素,而人口的弹性系数呈逐年下降趋势。The method of industrial difference and regional difference are used in this paper to analyze the development of China＇s electricity consumption for twenty years. The findings are that electricity consumption grow with the increase of national economy, electric power industry becomes a new leading industry and the consumption structure took secondary industry as center. Taking a look at electricity consumption in the four sectors, from 1986 to 2005, the change of electric power in first industry is small, in urban and rural residents, third industry, electric power consumption grew, the second industry is the greatest consumer of electric power. Through the analyses of per capita electricity consumption in 2005 of the 31 provinces in China, put the electricity consumption level into six grades, the results shows that the relationship of per capita GDP and per capita electricity consumption is direct proportional. On this basis, take population and per capita GDP as .variable, establishes regional demand model of electric power development in China, founds that the level of urbanization, and economic development are key grow elements of electricity demand in every province, but elastic coefficient of population shows a downtrend year after year. This research offer a scientific basis for regional analyses of electricity demand in China.

关 键 词：电力消费 地区分异 需求模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]