1960-2005年长江中下游极端降水指数变化特征分析  

Trends of extreme precipitation indices in the mid-lower Yangtze River valley of China during 1960—2005

作　　者：王冀[1] 江志红[1] 严明良[2] 张金玲 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,南京210044 [2]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008 [3]汕头市气象局,广东汕头515041

出　　处：《气象科学》2008年第4期384-388,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象灾害重点实验室开放课题(KLME050209)

摘　　要：本文利用长江中下游流域内的81个气象站,对长江中下游极端降水指数的时空变化特征进行分析。结果发现,在时间尺度上,长江中下游地区近46 a来极端降水指数呈上升趋势,其中降水强度上升趋势最明显,各个极端降水指数在年代际尺度上具有相同的变化特征,均存在着12 a左右的周期振荡,在年际尺度上,各极端降水指数变化周期并不一致。大雨日数与其他指数相比突变时间比较早,发生在1979年,其他几个指数突变时间比较接近,出现在1990年前后。在空间变化上,除极端湿天降水量在全区均为上升趋势外,其他几种极端降水指数在江苏东部地区、湖北西北部都存在着极端降水指数的负变化趋势,高值区主要分布在江西大部、湖北东南部、湖南东北部地区。Based on the daily precipitation records of 81 selected stations during 1960-2005, some extreme precipitation indices in mid-lower Yangtze River valley during last 46 years are used to investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics. Result shows that in temporal aspect, trends of extreme precipitation indices is raising, especially, SDII have the strong and significant trend. All the indices have the same 12 years long cycle period and different short cycle period. The abrupt time of R20mm was 1979 year, other indices have different abrupt times. In spatial aspect, r99tot have the positive trends in all the area, other indices have negative trends in east of Jiangsu province , north-west of Hubei province, the high value mainly distributies in Jiangxi province, south-east of Hubei, east-north of Hunan province.

关 键 词：极端降水指数 时间变化特征 空间分布 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]