气象预报服务效益评估方法研究--以暴雨预报服务为例  

study on evaluating method of service benefit of torrential rain

作　　者：姜爱军[1] 屠其璞[1] 陈广昌[2] 田心如[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学 [2]江苏省气象局,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2008年第4期435-439,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金项目“江苏持续高温和集中强降水事件表征方法及变化规律研究”(BK2005163)

摘　　要：暴雨是江苏的重要气象灾害之一,为了对暴雨预报气象服务效益作出恰当的评估,我们设计了预报准确率V、预报服务覆盖率P、预报服务时效率N、可能预防能力Z等四个指标,给出了定量评估暴雨预报气象服务效益的数学模型,并且用实例说明了该模型的实用性和可操作性。预报服务覆盖率、预报服务时效和预报准确率与服务效益成正比,各个因子都会很大程度上影响服务效益值。预防能力越强,气象服务的效益越大,这也说明了气象预报只是一种信息,信息价值的体现还在于应用信息群体的决策和防御能力。In order to evaluate service benefit of torrential rain forecasting quantitatively, a mathematical model was build with forecasting accuracy （ referred as V） , percentage of coverage （ referred as P）, time validity （referred as N） and damage preventability （referred as Z）. Service samples of torrential rain forecasting proved the practicability and maneuverability of the model. Torrential rain forecasting coverage, validity of service and accuracy are in direct proportion to service benefit which is affected by the above three factors, respectively. The stronger capability of preventing weather disaster is, the more benefit is gained from forecasting service. Therefore, torrential rain forecasting service is a kind of information whose value lies on the decision-making and defence capability of the applying information colony.

关 键 词：暴雨 服务 效益评估 定量方法 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]