2006年T213模式在江苏的降水和温度检验评估  

Verification and evaluation of rainfall and temperature forecasting for T213L31 global numerical model in Jiangsu area in 2006

作　　者：张冰[1] 魏建苏[1] 裴海瑛 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008 [2]南京市气象局,南京210009

出　　处：《气象科学》2008年第4期468-472,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省科技厅资助项目(BS2002067)

摘　　要：为了了解T213模式在江苏区域的预报性能,对该模式在江苏区域的降水和温度预报进行了检验和评估。检验结果表明,在江苏区域,T213模式晴雨预报正确率近70%,模式对降水预报具有一定的指示作用,影响中小量级降水TS评分的主要因素是模式预报的虚假降水成分较多,中等以上量级则存在降水中心落区预报偏差较大的情况。T213模式温度预报值系统性偏低3℃左右,模式分析场的温度偏低且与实况误差较大,是造成这种情况的主要原因,因此进行温度订正是必要的。In order to verify the forecast skill of T213L31 global numerical model in Jiangsu area, the precipitation and temperature prediction output from this model has been analyzed. The results show that the rate for the fine or rain weather forecasting is near 70% , and it has better capability of predicting the rain or no. The main reasons for the low TS score in light rain in Jiangsu area is that the predicted precipitation area is larger than that of the actual occurrence. On the other hand, there are biases in the rainfall center when the precipitation is more than the moderate. Also, this model is found to overestimate temperature prediction about 3 ℃ systematically, main reason is that the temperature of analysis fields is lower than the observed. So it is necessary to correct the temperature in operational use.

关 键 词：检验评估 T213模式 TS评分 温度预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]