航空电源系统可靠性的Bayes分析  

The Bayes System Reliability Analysis for Aerospace Power Supply

作　　者：沈政[1] 师义民[1] 姜祥周[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学应用数学系,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《航天控制》2008年第4期78-82,共5页Aerospace Control

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(编号No.70471057)

摘　　要：对改进中的航空电源系统进行可靠性评估,本文引入继承因子利用信息融合的原理将改进前与改进后的历史信息融合为一个混合先验,并进一步假定继承因子为随机变量采用多层Bayes方法对系统进行了可靠性分析。最后通过仿真实例求得系统的一些常见的可靠性指标,并与传统Bayes评估结果进行比较,结论表明本方法的有效性。In order to estimate the system reliability fusion theory, the similar or correlative information is of the aerospace power supply, using the information incorporated before updating with the updating history information to get a mixture prior density with the knowledge factor. Particularly postulating the factor is a random variable, a careful discussion is given. The simulation example gives some reliability indexes, comparing with the traditional Bayes approach, the result shows the method is efficient.

关 键 词：航空电源 系统可靠性 多层贝叶斯方法 继承因子 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]