动力学模型在艾滋病流行趋势中的研究  

APPLICATION OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS IN HIV/AIDS INFECTION

作　　者：赵飞[1] 胡东生[1] 郗园林[1] 张梅喜[1] 张卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,郑州450001

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2008年第17期3253-3255,3259,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关重大课题(2004BA719A13-02);2006年度河南省艾滋病科技攻关项目

摘　　要：[目的]用数学模型来研究某省艾滋病病毒感染者(HIV感染者)和艾滋病患者(AIDS患者)的流行状况。[方法]建立了离散型HIV传播动力学基本模型和有干预的HIV传播动力学模型,确定了有关参数,并运用Matlab软件进行分析。[结果]到2010年,在不采取任何干预措施的情况下,某省HIV感染者和AIDS患者分别将达到10万、2.8万;如果干预率能够达到50%以上,二者分别将下降到3..8万、2.1万。[结论]对HIV/AIDS易感人群实施有效的行为干预措施,对控制HIV/AIDS在某省的蔓延具有十分重要的意义。[ Objective ] To analyze future HIV/AIDS prevalence trend in a province with mathematical dynamic models. [ Methods ] A basic discrete-time dynamics model and a dynamics model of HIV with intervention were formulated. The numerical simulation and prediction were done. [ Results] If any interventions were not carried out, the number of HIV infected individuals would be about 10 thousand and the number of AIDS cases would be about 28 thousand in 2010; if the intervention rate was 0.5, the number of HIV infected individuals would be about 38 thousand and the number of AIDS cases would be about 21 thousand. [Conclusion] It is very important to adopt some effective intervention measures to reverse the tendency.

关 键 词：HIV/AIDS 动力学 数学模型 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]