基于Copula函数的洪水过程随机模拟  

Random simulation of flood hydrographs based on Copula function

作　　者：张涛[1] 赵春伟[1] 雒文生[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2008年第4期1-4,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大基金项目(编号:04JZD0011)

摘　　要：对实测截口序列进行等量变换,使变换后的截口具有较好的统计规律.应用Copula函数构造洪峰与历时的联合分布,以及相邻截口的联合分布,采用联合随机抽样方法进行大样本的洪水过程随机模拟,为洪水过程设计提出了一种新的随机模拟方法.结果表明,该方法能较好地描述洪峰、历时的统计特性及相关关系,克服了传统模拟方法对历时描述较差的缺点,且能反映出洪水过程的变化特性,截口具有随机波动性、锯齿现象较少.Measured section series can have better statistics regulation after equal quantity shift. Then Copula function is used to construct multivariate joint distributions for flood peak and duration, and for adjacent sections. The flood hydrograph is simulated with random sampling method based on joint distribution so as to provide a new method for flood random simulation. The results show that statistics traits and related relations of flood peak and duration can be well described, and overcome traditional methods＇ weakness describing flood duration badly; and sections have random variety and few sawtooth, which reflect variety traits of flood hydrograph.

关 键 词：洪水过程 COPULA函数 截口等量变换 随机模拟 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]