全流通过程中股票市场格局的变化趋势  

Judgment on fundamental changes in chinese stock market under complete circulation

作　　者：巴曙松[1] 储怀英[2] 郑弘[3] 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心金融研究所 [2]中国科学技术大学 [3]中央财经大学

出　　处：《财经科学》2008年第9期42-49,共8页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：本文通过一个经典的动态不完全信息信号博弈模型,分析当前中国股票市场解禁的非流通股股东与普通流通股东的博弈行为。认为当前针对大小非减持的信息披露有其积极意义,允许上市公司回购股份等也有助于估值信息的传递;同时,市场逐步走向更加合理的产业资本与金融资本互动的估值体系的预期有利于资本市场分离均衡的实现。中国资本市场在经历后股权分置时代的深刻变革之后成为经济晴雨表的功能将逐步增强。In this paper a classical model of dynamic games with incomplete information is applied to analyze behavior of two parties, non - tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders in Chinese stock market. Based on that analysis, the paper concludes that the information disclosure system in the process of reducing holdings is essential for separate equilibrium which stands for high efficiency of capital market, and expectation of agents that pricing of shares is getting more reasonable will further lead to separate equilibrium. Furthermore, considering other characters of Chinese capital market under complete circulation, we argue that share price will polarize and Chinese stock market will reflect the performance of Chinese economy more strongly than before.

关 键 词：大小非 减持 不完全信息动态博弈 全流通 并购重组 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]