利用气象与生态要素预测冬小麦产量  

Method for Estimating Winter Wheat Yield with Meteorological and Ecological Factors

作　　者：郭海英[1] 万信[1] 杨兴国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第4期440-443,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目"西北地区干旱监测系统研究"(CMA7J2005M22);科技部科研院所社会公益专项(2005DIB3J100);国家自然科学基金项目(40205005)共同资助

摘　　要：选用对陇东黄土高原塬区冬小麦产量形成至关重要的发育期间光热要素、水分复合因子以及表征冬小麦生长状况的定量因子生长势等气象要素和生态要素,利用多元线性回归方法建立了冬小麦不同生长发育阶段产量预报方程,试预报准确率达到92%以上。该方法改变了利用气象单类要素预报粮食产量的传统观念,为利用生态要素、水分复合因子等综合要素预报粮食产量进行了积极的探索,使数字农业、生态农业气象要素在陇东黄土高原得到有效推广。The yield estimate equation of winter wheat considering different growth stages is established in the multiple linear regression method by means of such meteorological and ecological factors as sunlight and heat, moisture during the essential growth period of winter wheat, which are crucial to the yield formation of winter wheat in the loess plateau area of the eastern Gansu Pravince, as well as growth potential, a quantitative factor indicative of growing condition. It has an accuracy of over 92% in trial use. Unlike the traditional method of using single meteorological element to predict grain yields, the new method considered ecological factors and moisture, and gained satisfactory results.

关 键 词：冬小麦 产量预测 气象要素 水分复合因子 生长势 

分 类 号：S963.221.5[农业科学—水产养殖] TP79[农业科学—水产科学]