人民币利率-汇率联动协调机制的实证分析和对策研究  

Co-Movement and Coordination Mechanism of RMB Interest Rate and Exchange Rate under Capital Account Liberalization

作　　者：何慧刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2008年第8期51-57,共7页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“资本控制与汇率制度选择研究”(20060400596);湖北金融发展与金融安全研究中心科学研究计划项目“资本账户开放进程中的人民币汇率制度选择研究”的研究成果之一

摘　　要：利率、汇率是货币市场与外汇市场的调节工具和货币政策的主要手段,两者之间相互联动相互协调。宏观调控政策的有效性不仅取决于利率政策或汇率政策,而且取决于利率-汇率联动协调效应。加强利率-汇率联动协调是实现我国内外经济均衡的重要途径。文章首先分析利率-汇率联动协调机制的M-F-D模型,然后建立计量模型对人民币实际汇率和中美实际利差进行实证分析,进而分析我国偏离M-F-D的现实和原因,最后提出增强人民币利率-汇率联动协调机制、实现我国经济内外均衡的政策建议。Under capital account liberalization, interest rate and exchange rate interact with each other. The effectiveness of macroeconomic adjustment policies depends not only on the employment of interest rate policy and exchange rate policy, but also on the co-movement and coordination of the two rates. In the process of China＇s capital account liberalization, to strengthen interest rate and exchange rate co-movement and coordination is a vital measure to achieve internal and external economic equilibrium. This article presents M-F-D model firstly, then sets a model using M-F-D model to make an empirical analysis on RMB real exchange rate and Sino-US interest rate gap. After analyzing the causes for China＇s discordance with M-F-D Model, it finally puts forward some policy suggestions on strengthening China＇s interest rate and exchange rate co-movement and coordination in order to achieve the internal and external economic equilibrium.

关 键 词：实际利率 实际汇率 利率-汇率联动协调机制 实证分析 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]