经济增长、经济政策与公司业绩关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Relation between Economic Growth,Economic Policies and Firm Performance

作　　者：靳庆鲁[1] 李荣林[1] 万华林[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学会计与财务研究院,200433 [2]上海立信会计学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2008年第8期90-101,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：“上海市优秀青年教师基金项目”;上海财经大学“211项目”的资助

摘　　要：本文以1995年至2004年上市公司为样本,考察了经济增长、经济政策与公司业绩之间的关系。通过构筑IS-LM模型,本文测算了我国的各项财政政策与货币政策乘数,以量化我国宏观经济政策的变化,并在此基础上,研究了经济增长、经济政策对公司会计业绩和股票报酬的影响,发现经济政策显著影响公司会计业绩与股票报酬,但不同的经济政策对会计业绩和股票报酬的影响不尽相同;另外,我们还发现,在控制了经济政策因素后,经济增长并没有和公司业绩相背离。本文的发现为诠释我国股市是否是宏观经济的"晴雨表"提供了一个新的研究视角。Based on Chinese listed companies sample over the period from 1995 to 2004, we examine the relation between economic growth, economic policies and firm-level accounting performance and stock return. By constructing IS-LM model, we estimate the fiscal policy multiplier （government expenditure multiplier, transfer payment multiplier, tax multiplier） and monetary policy multiplier so as to appropriately measure the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. On the basis of the changes in fiscal and monetary policies, we investigate the influence of the economic growth, economic policies on the accounting performance and stock return, and find that there is a significant link between economic policies and firm performance, although there is some variations among different economic policies. In addition, after controlling the influences of the economic policies on firm performance, we observe that the macro economic growth doesn＇t deviate from the micro firm performance, this finding is not consistent with some prior researches, hut it is consistent with classical economic theory.

关 键 词：经济增长 经济政策 会计业绩 股票报酬 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F224