引江济太工程综合效益的评估及方法探讨  

Integrated benefit assessment of the project water diversion from Yangtze River to Lake Taihu and discussion on the methodology

作　　者：吴浩云[1] 周丹平[2] 何佳[2] 包存宽[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济管理学院 [2]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2008年第5期639-647,共9页Journal of Lake Sciences

摘　　要：引江济太调水工程自2002年实施以来,不仅发挥了防洪除涝的巨大作用,而且给太湖流域带来了显著的社会、经济和环境效益.探讨评估引江济太工程综合效益的综合指数法与价值估算法,利用层次分析法确定评价因子权重,计算了城镇自来水厂的直接经济效益.通过公众与专家调查确定因子值,然后计算得到综合效益得分为U=77,表明引江济太调水对阳澄淀泖区的经济、社会和环境的综合效益明显,在保障流域河道水位、水环境功能达标、水资源需求满足率,降低人体健康风险,促进水资源综合利用,提高人居环境舒适度、水产养殖效益、水厂效益、工业供水及农业效益等方面效益明显.此外,在提供就业、促进地区文化以及旅游、房地产、航运等方面也有一定的效益.2002-2005年常规调水改善阳澄淀泖区城市自来水厂降低成本的年度效益分别为993万元、2926万元、3617万元、3507万元,合计11043万元.根据水厂效益在综合效益中的贡献比例,可得引江济太产生的经济效益约为4.8亿元,综合效益为53亿元.The project of Water Diversion from Yangtze River to Lake Taihu has played an important role in preventing flood, and brings about great integrated benefits on society, economy and environment in the Taihu Basin since 2002. The paper discusses the methodology for evaluating the integrated benefit of Water Diversion, and uses analytical hierarchy process and weighted synthetic index to determine the integrated benefits of the project. Moreover, the paper uses market pricing method to determine the direct benefit of saving chemicals in the water works within the region. The value of synthetic index of integrated benefit is U=77, that means the project has large benefits to economy, society and environment of Yang-Cheng-Dian-Mao District, especially the water quality and quantity of rivers in the Taihu Basin has improved to meet water source quality, reducing health risk, promoting integrated utilization of water resource, improving living environment, expanding aquiculture benefit, saving water works expenditure, gaining industry water supply and agriculture benefits, etc. During 2002-2005, the four year benefit from improving drinking water quality by the project was 9.9 million, 29.2 million, 36.2 million, 35.1 million respectively, and totally 110.4 million. According to the proportion of economic benefit with integrated benefit, the imputed economic benefit was about 4.8 billion; consequently the integrated benefit was about 5.3 billion.

关 键 词：引江济太 效益 综合指数法 价值估算法 

分 类 号：TV67[水利工程—水利水电工程] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]