基于CERES模型的临沂小麦生产的适应措施研究  

Study on Adaptation Measures of Wheat Production in Linyi of Shandong Province Based on CERES Crop Model

作　　者：袁静[1] 许吟隆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2008年第3期251-255,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关课题(2004BA611B02);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC03A02)

摘　　要：采用英国Had ley中心的区域气候模式PREC IS结合CERES-W heat模型,对2071-2100年(2080 s)SRES A2、B2两种排放情景下山东临沂地区小麦生产进行模拟。结果表明:在PREC IS预测的2080 s气候变化情景下,不考虑CO2的肥效作用,临沂地区小麦的生育期明显缩短,产量有所下降,且A2情景下产量下降更明显;考虑CO2肥效作用时,能够补偿温度升高带来的负面影响,两种情景下的小麦产量均显著增加。未来如果保持品种和管理措施不变,A2、B2情景下分别将小麦的播期推迟15d、10d后,小麦的生育期将延长,产量将增加;通过品种参数对产量的影响分析,得出未来气候变化情景下应尽量培育穗粒数较多的品种以提高产量;根据现有品种的表现,未来气候变化情景下,临沂地区适当引进偏春性的冬小麦品种,将可能提高产量。总之,将播期推迟,培育穗粒数较大的小麦新品种或引进偏春性的小麦品种可以减小未来气候变化对临沂小麦生产的不利影响。The wheat production during 2071 -2100 （2080s） was simulated in Linyi of Shandong Province under A2 and B2 emission scenarios based on the CERES-Wheat crop model associated with the climate change scenario produced by the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model- PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）. The results showed that keeping wheat variety and field managements unchanged, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios, by 2080s the growing season would shorten, and the wheat yield would decrease. If the fertilization effect of CO2 was considered, it would compensate for the negative impact of temperature increases. If the sowing date was delayed and other measures didn＇t be changed, the wheat yield would increase and growing season would prolong. Breeding the wheat cultivar with more grain number per ear or introducing into the winter wheat by spring character, the wheat yield would increase. The delayed sowing date, breeding the wheat cultivar with more grain number per ear or introducing into the winter wheat by spring character would reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on wheat production in Linyi.

关 键 词：气候变化 CERES模型 小麦 适应 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]