情景规划在新兴技术动态评估中的应用  

The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies

作　　者：银路[1] 李天柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学管理学院,四川成都610054

出　　处：《科研管理》2008年第4期12-18,共7页Science Research Management

摘　　要：针对现有新兴技术评估方法的不足,分析了将情景规划应用于新兴技术动态评估的思路与方法;在此基础上,开发了一个新兴技术动态评估的过程模型,并以微硬盘技术为例,说明了该模型的特点与应用过程。Aimed at the current status that the existing assessment methods for emerging technologies are insufficient, the ideas and methodologies using scenario planning in dynamic assessment for emerging technologies are analyzed. Then, on this basis, a model of the dynamic assessment process for emerging technologies is developed. And a technology named MagicStor is taken as a instance ; the traits and application process of the model are illustrated.

关 键 词：情景规划 新兴技术 不确定性 动态评估 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]