不同对流参数化方案和初值场组合对四川两次暴雨影响的数值模拟  

Numerical Simulation for Impact of Combination of Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes and Initial Fields on Twice Heave Rain in Sichuan Province

作　　者：何光碧[1] 曹杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]云南大学大气科学系,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第4期787-795,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40775032);科技部项目(2004DID3J119;GYHY(QX)2007-6-12);成都高原气象研究所高原气象研究专项(PMP2006001)共同资助

摘　　要：针对2004年9月2～6日四川盆地东北部一次持续性暴雨过程和2004年6月30日成都地区暴雨过程，利用MM5中尺度数值模式，进行了Grell、Kuo、KF及BM四种积云对流参数化方案与T213模式分析值及NCEP再分析值两种初始值组合的数值试验，分析了不同积云方案和初值组合的模拟性能。比较结果表明，MM5模式较好地再现了这两次强降水过程。在同一模式中，不同对流参数化方案和不同初值组合在降水落区和强度模拟上存在一定程度的差异。初步模拟表明NCEP资料模拟的降水强度较T213资料模拟的降水强度偏弱，但降水落区较T213资料模拟的更接近实况，T213资料模拟的降水空报现象较严重。以T213资料模拟得到的高度、温度场都较NCEP资料更有利于影响系统的加强，模拟的湿度场、散度场和垂直运动场都较NCEP资料更有利于强降水的发生。相对而言，NCEP资料模拟结果更接近实况，Kuo和Grell方案对初值表现出更为敏感。A durative rainstorm occurred in north-eastern of Sichuan during 2-6 September 2004 and an local rainstorm in Chengdu district on 30 June 2004 have been simulated by using MM5 meso-scale numerical model for composite of four kinds of Grell, Kuo, KF and BM cumulus convective parameterization schemes and different initial fields. The simulated performance for the composition of different schemes and different initial values has been analysed. The results show that MM5 model has better performance for simulating the twice heavy rainfall. But there are some difference in the area and the intensity of precipitation for the composition of different parameterization schemes and different initial values. Elementary simulated results indict that the precipitation intensity using NCEP data as initial fields is weaker than that of using T213 data, but precipitation area is more agreeable to the real. Precipitation simulation using T213 data as initial fields is apt to occurrence, but the real did not appear. Simulated height and temperature fields of using T213 data as initial fields avail the effect system＇s strength, and the simulated humidity, convergence and vertical velocity avail heavy rainfall occurrence. Comparatively, the simulated results using NCEP data is more agreeable to the real. Kuo andGrell schemes are more sensitive to the initial values.

关 键 词：四川暴雨 对流参数化方案 T213模式分析值初值 NCEP再分析值初值 数值试验 

分 类 号：P43[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]