注射吸毒人群规模估计方法与外推的初步研究  

Method of Estimating the Scale of the Injection Drug Users and the Method of Extending Estimation

作　　者：徐娟[1] 孔鹏[1] 王群林[2] 潘伟[1] 彭佳林[1] 方鹏骞[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,武汉430030 [2]湖北省汉川市疾病预防控制中心,汉川431600

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（医学版）》2008年第4期550-552,554,共4页Acta Medicinae Universitatis Scientiae et Technologiae Huazhong

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No30471479)

摘　　要：目的探讨注射吸毒人群规模估计的方法,为我国制订注射吸毒人群干预计划和艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法在清洁针具交换点,采用捕获-再捕获的方法对某省某地注射吸毒人员规模进行估计,并运用层次分析法估计该省其它地区注射吸毒人群的规模。结果应用捕获-再捕获方法计算得到某省某地注射吸毒人群为798人,95%可信区间为(748人,848人),应用层次分析法外推,得到该省部分地区注射吸毒人群共有11100人。结论运用捕获-再捕获法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计,方法经济易行,结果较为可靠。对估计结果采用层次分析法进行外推,适合发展中国家在卫生资源有限的情况下进行艾滋病高危人群的规模估计。Objective To discuss the method to estimate the personnel scale of injection drug users （IDUs）. Methods The capture-recapture method was used to estimate the personnel scale of the IDUs in needle exchange centers of the investigation area in a province. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to estimate the scale of the drug users in some areas of the province. Results By using the capture-recapture method, it was inferred that there were 798 IDUs in the investigation area （95% CI： 748 and 848 persons）. Based on the data above, by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, it was inferred that there were 11 100 IDUs in some parts of the province. Conclusion Using capture-recapture method to estimate the scale of IDUs was very easy and economical, and the results were credible. Based on the estimation results, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to infer the scale of the drug users was suitable for developing country to estimate the scale of high risk population with limited health resource.

关 键 词：艾滋病 注射吸毒 针具交换 捕获-再捕获 层次分析法 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]