分布式水文模型的误差分析  

Error Analysis of Distributed Hydrological Model

作　　者：夏积德[1] 吴发启[1] 姚志宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2008年第4期105-110,共6页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点基础研究(937)项目“中国主要水蚀区土壤侵蚀过程与调挖研究”不同类型区土壤侵蚀过程与机理研究(2007CB407201)

摘　　要：分布式水文模型以其具有明确物理意义的参数结构和对空间分异性的全面反映,能够准确详尽地描述和模拟流域内真实的降水径流过程而被广泛需求和关注。在模拟土地利用、土地覆盖、水土流失等各种变化过程的水文响应,面源污染、陆面过程、气候变化影响评价等诸多领域都有广泛的应用。模型的预报精度和误差至关重要,决定了模型的应用和推广。在分析分布式水文模型建立和验证过程的基础上,提出了模型的4类误差来源:被排除在外的因素引起的误差,实测历史记录资料的随机或系统误差,参数误差和模型结构误差,讨论了各类误差的分析与计算方法,为模型的发展和成长提供了依据。With the clear physical meaning of parameter structure and the full reflection of spatial heterogeneity, a distributed hydrolog a basin, accurately and su ical model can describe and simulate the real process of runoff fficiently. The model is widely needed and concerned recentl induced by rainfall in y. Non-point source pollution, land surface process, and climate change impact assessment have a wide range of applications in the simulation of land use, land cover, soil erosion, and other changes in hydrological responses. Accuracy and error are critical to model forecast, which determine the application and extension of the model. On the basis of the analysis of model construction and verification process, the four kinds of model error sources are identified as follows： error caused by the factors being excluded, random or systematic error in a measured historical record, parametric error, and error caused by model structure. The analysis of each error and its calculation method are discussed and a basis for the model development and growth is provided.

关 键 词：分布式 水文模型 误差分析 参数 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]