基于SWAT模型的中尺度流域气候变化水文响应研究  

A Study of Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change in Medium Scale Basin Based on SWAT

作　　者：于磊[1] 顾鎏[1] 李建新[2] 朱新军[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学资源与环境工程学院,山东淄博255049 [2]水利部海河水利委员会,天津300170

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2008年第4期152-154,共3页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：世行GEF项目"KM重点县及示范项目区水资源与水环境综合管理工具"(HW7-18-3)

摘　　要：基于2002—2004年气象资料,选择一中尺度流域——漳卫南流域,采用SWAT模型的ArcView界面AVS2000构建了分布式水文模型,并以流域现状气象条件为基准,设置了24种不同气候情景,以流域径流量、腾发量(ET)和产水量3个SWAT模型输出指标定量分析了气候变化对流域水循环的影响。模拟结果表明气候变化对于流域腾发量(ET)、地表经流量和产水量均有显著影响:流域降水量增加,流域腾发量(ET)、径流量和产水量都随之相应增加;流域气温增加,腾发量(ET)随之相应增加,但径流量和产水量随气温增加而相应降低。研究结果对于变化环境下的流域水资源管理具有一定的意义。The SWAT model is a distributed hydrologic model with the ability of evaluating the hydrologic responses to climate change. Its ArcView interface version AVS2000 is applied to analyze 2000--2004 basic data observed from the Zhangweinan basin on medium scale. Based on the current climate, 24 kinds of climate scenarios are set to simulate the hydrologic responses to climate change. Runoff, evapotranspiration, and water yield are selected to quantitatively analyze climate change impacts on hydrologic responses. Result from the research shows that runoff, evapotranspiration, and water yield of the basin are affected greatly by climate change. Runoff, evapotranspiration, and water yield also increase with increasing precipitation. When temperature rises, evapotranspiration increases, but runoff and water yield decrease. The research may be helpful to water resource management under climate change.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 气候变化 水文响应 中尺度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P334[天文地球—水文科学]