考虑风险规避和认知更新的日常择路行为演进  

Evolution of day-to-day route choice behavior considering risk aversion and perception updating

作　　者：刘天亮[1] 黄海军[2] 陈剑[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2008年第4期90-94,103,共6页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70521001);国家973计划项目(2006CB705503)

摘　　要：为了刻画出行者的日常择路行为,利用动力学系统方法和不动点理论,建立了一个集成风险规避和认知更新的演化模型,分析了演化过程的稳定性,并在一个简单网络上进行了验证。发现在模拟开始的前15 d内,出行时间预算、路径期望出行时间、实际出行时间以及路径流量都出现了较大的波动,但经过大约30 d的摸索以后,开始趋向于随机用户均衡状态。分析结果表明:模型所设计的择路演化过程类似于经典的相继平均算法的计算过程,可以确保收敛到稳定状态,并与初始状态参数的取值无关。In order to depict travelers＇ day-to-day route choice behaviors, an integrated model considering risk aversion and perception updating was proposed by using dynamics system approach and fixed point theory, its evolution stability was discussed and validated in a simple network. It is pointed that travel time budget, expected route travel time, actual＂ route travel time and route flow appear a large of turbulence in 15 d at the beginning of simulation, but the traffic pattern evolves to stochastic user equilibrium state after nearly thirty days＇ travel. Analysis result indicates that the route choice evolution adopted in the model is highly similar to the computational steps of the classical method of successive average（MSA）, so the evolution stability can be assured, and the final flow pattern is independent of initial values of all state variables. 2 tabs, 8 figs, 16 refs.

关 键 词：交通网络均衡 日常择路行为 风险规避 认知更新 出行者信息系统 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]