淮河流域水资源变化的分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of the Change of Water Resources in the Huai River Basin

作　　者：薛梅[1] 葛朝霞[1] 宋颖玲[1] 周慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点试验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2008年第8期15-17,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40233037);国家自然科学基金资助项目(90211011)

摘　　要：利用淮河流域月平均气温和月总降水量资料，计算出该流域的逐年水资源量。采用周期均值叠加法和逐步回归周期分析法对淮河流域水资源进行分析，在此基础上建立了周期叠加法和逐步回归周期法两种预报模型，经比较分析，周期均值叠加模型的拟合及试预报效果都较好，因此运用该模型预报淮河流域2007-2008年的水资源量。结果发现，2008年淮河流域的水资源量较多年平均值偏多，这对该流域2008年水资源的规划具有一定的参考价值。The annual water resources of the Huai River basin was calculated on the basis of the monthly temperature and precipitation data. The water resources in the Huai River basin was analyzed by the periodic mean superposition and the periodic analysis of stepwise regression, and then, the periodic overlapping model and the periodic analysis of stepwise regression model were built, and the comparison showed that the fitting and forecasting results of the periodic overlapping model were better, therefore, the water resources from 2007 to 2008 were predicted by the periodic overlapping model. The result shows that the water resources of the Huai River basin in 2008 is more than the long-time average annual value, this has some reference value in the planning of the water resources in 2008.

关 键 词：周期 均值叠加 逐步回归 水资源 淮河 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]