我国农村水电建设投资的协整性研究  

A Cointegration Study of the Construction Investment of Rural Hydropowers in China

作　　者：毛燕玲[1] 傅春[1] 肖教燎[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学管理科学与工程系,南昌330031

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2008年第8期149-151,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(07BSH045);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL06206)

摘　　要：发展农村水电,是实现农业和农村现代化的重要条件,也是促进县域经济发展和农民增收的有效途径。本文应用协整理论对1990-2005年样本区间内农村水电建设完成投资额与农民人均纯收入、乡镇企业增加值的长期均衡进行分析,并应用格兰杰因果检验方法对变量之间的因果关系进行经验性研究。结果表明,农村水电建设投资与农民人均纯收入、乡镇企业增加值之间具有正向的协整关系,而且还存在单向因果关系,农村水电建设投资是农民收入和乡镇企业增加值的格兰杰原因。The development of rural hydropowers is an important condition of realizing the modernization of agriculture and the countryside, and it is also an effective way of accelerating rural economic development and increasing farmers＇ incomes. This paper analyzed the long-run equilibrium between the construction investment of rural hydropowers and each farmrer＇s net income and the added value of township enterprises from 1990 to 2005 by Cointegration theory, and empirically studied the causal relationship between those variables through Grange Causality Test. The results indicated remarkable positive cointegrations and one-way causal relationships between the construction investment of rural hydropower and each farmer＇s net income and the added value of township enterprises where the former was the Grange cause, of the latter.

关 键 词：农村水电 农民收入 乡镇企业 实证研究 

分 类 号：TV742[水利工程—水利水电工程]