南方区域月度电力市场中发电企业的报价行为分析与预测  

Bidding Behavior Analysis and Forecast of Generation Enterprises in Monthly Electricity Market of Southern China Power Grid

作　　者：夏叶[1] FURONG Li 康重庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [2]巴斯大学电子与电气工程系,英国巴斯BA27AY

出　　处：《电网技术》2008年第17期17-22,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：霍英东教育基金会资助项目(104020);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50777031)。~~

摘　　要：月度撮合交易是我国南方区域电力市场的主要交易方式之一。作者以该类交易方式为研究对象,剖析了发电企业在此市场模式下的报价行为,重点分析了信息披露机制中"新息"对发电企业报价行为的影响;提出并构建了南方区域月度电力市场的发电企业报价样本库以解决研究样本较少的突出问题;据此研究了包含报价基值预测和波动量预测的发电企业报价预测策略;提出了决定系数筛选法以提高预测策略对于不同机组的适应性。由此建立的发电企业报价行为分析及预测方法,对于基于撮合交易方式的电力市场成员具有重要参考价值。Monthly matchmaking tradeoff competition is one of the main transaction modes in regional electricity market of Southern China Power Grid. Taking this kind of transaction mode as the research object, the authors dissect the bidding behavior of generation enterprises under such a market mode, emphatically analyze the impact of new information in the information disclosure mechanism on bidding behavior of generation enterprises; propose and construct a bidding sample database of generation enterprises to solve the prominent problem of sample shortage. On this basis, the bidding price forecast strategy of generation enterprises, which consists of base value forecast and fluctuation quantity forecast, is researched; and a determination coefficient based model screening method is presented to improve the adaptability of the forecast method for each generation unit. The built analysis and forecast method for bidding behavior of generation enterprises based on above-mentioned research is available for reference to the participants of electricity market based on transaction mode of matchmaking tradeoff.

关 键 词：电力市场 发电企业 报价行为分析 报价预测 撮合交易 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]