陕西春季沙尘暴预测方法分析  

Analyses on Prediction Method of Spring Sandstorms in Shannxi Province

作　　者：雷向杰[1] 黄祖英[1] 蔡新玲[1] 田武文[1] 胡春娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2008年第5期980-985,共6页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国气象局项目:主体功能区规划中的气象灾害防御政策措施的制定;陕西省气象局基金项目(2005M--4)资助

摘　　要：分析了陕西春季沙尘暴的变化趋势、突变和突变的可能原因以及影响陕西春季沙尘暴的环流特征量和其他要素;提出了预报思路,建立了预测概念模型和回归统计模型及其相应的业务流程,在春季沙尘暴趋势预测业务中应用,连续3 a预测结论正确。The paper analyzed the temporal change trend, abrupt change and abrupt change reason of sand- storms occurring in spring in Shannxi Province, also analyzed the circulation characters and other factors effecting spring sandstorms in Shannxi Province. Then the prediction method was suggested, and the con- ceptual and regression models were established. The method was proved to be effective after continuously 3- year predicting practice applying with the models.

关 键 词：沙尘暴 基本特征 环流特征 预测方法 陕西 

分 类 号：P445.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]