An Inquiry into the Determinants of the Exports of China and India  

作　　者：Richard S.Eckaus 

机构地区：[1]Ford Foundation Professor of International Economics Emeritus,Department of Economics,MIT,USA

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2008年第5期1-15,共15页中国与世界经济（英文版）

基　　金：the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program;the Department of Economics,MIT

摘　　要：Regression analysis is used to tease out the relative significance of influences on the supply and demand for the exports of China and India. On the supply side, the value-added tax in China has discouraged export supply. The elimination of the rebate on those taxes will discourage exports. Higher wages discourage exports, but the share of exports by foreign invested enterprise is a positive influence, as is a higher share of value added in output and greater experience in exporting. On the demand side, exports depend in part on aggregate income levels in importing countries. Relative wages have been more important than exchange rates in determining the demands for Chinese and Indian exports. This evidence does not support the pressures for a devaluation of the RMB. There is also evidence of the positive significance of the accustomization of purchasers to buying Chinese exports.Regression analysis is used to tease out the relative significance of influences on the supply and demand for the exports of China and India. On the supply side, the value-added tax in China has discouraged export supply. The elimination of the rebate on those taxes will discourage exports. Higher wages discourage exports, but the share of exports by foreign invested enterprise is a positive influence, as is a higher share of value added in output and greater experience in exporting. On the demand side, exports depend in part on aggregate income levels in importing countries. Relative wages have been more important than exchange rates in determining the demands for Chinese and Indian exports. This evidence does not support the pressures for a devaluation of the RMB. There is also evidence of the positive significance of the accustomization of purchasers to buying Chinese exports.

关 键 词：China＇s exchange rate China＇s exports India＇s exports value-added tax 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]