人力资本与经济增长关系实证分析——以浙江省为例  

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Human Capital and Economic Growth——Based on Zhejiang Province

作　　者：孙敬水[1] 许利利[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心,浙江杭州310035

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2008年第5期777-784,共8页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：浙江省哲社科学基金项目(批准号:07CGLJ013Y BX);浙江省社科联重点项目(批准号:07211);浙江省教育厅项目(批准号:1020KZ207176)

摘　　要：本文针对浙江省人力资本水平与经济增长水平不相匹配的经济现象,利用浙江省1985—2004年统计数据,论证了浙江人力资本与经济增长之间的关系.通过建立人力资本评价体系,运用因子分析法测算出浙江人力资本综合指数H;运用计量分析方法,论证了人力资本与经济增长之间存在着长期协整关系;通过建立模型,得出以下基本结论:浙江人力资本对经济增长有显著影响,其人力资本的产出弹性大于物资资本的产出弹性,简单劳动力的产出弹性为负值,表明人力资本对经济增长的拉动力要大于物质资本,简单劳动力已经处于过剩或饱和状态,提高劳动力素质尤为重要.对此,本文提出了相应的政策建议.There isn＇t enough human capital level matching on economics growth rate in zhejiang. According to this question, based on the data from 1985 to 2004 in Zhejiang province, this paper will study the possible linkages between Human Capital and Economic Growth. Consulting a system of human capital and using the factor analysis of the multivariate statistics, we will get the comprehensive evaluation of human capital H. Through the econometric analysis, the paper argue that it exists cointegration relationship between Human Capital and Economic Growth. The result shows Human Capital have strong effect on Economic Growth., and its output elasticity larger than the physical capital＇s. On the other hand, the number of labor have been saturation, so it is essential in improving the health of the people. On the basis of result, the paper give some suggestion.

关 键 词：人力资本 经济增长 评价体系 因子分析 JOHANSEN检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]