应用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测新生儿出生缺陷率  

Application of grey theory model on forecasting incidence rate of perinatals' birth defect

作　　者：刘晓冬[1] 孟祥臻[1] 景睿[1] 杨晓红[1] 李玲[1] 李向云[1] 

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院预防医学系,山东261042

出　　处：《中国优生与遗传杂志》2008年第9期98-99,共2页Chinese Journal of Birth Health & Heredity

摘　　要：目的预测我国新生儿出生缺陷率的变化趋势,为卫生部门制定相应的防制对策提供理论依据。方法利用GM(1,1)灰色模型对我国新生儿出生缺陷率进行拟合和变化趋势预测。结果根据我国以医院为基础的出生缺陷监测结果建立的灰色预测模型为:模型的平均误差率为1.8%,该模型精度为优(C=0.1955,P=1.000),预测效果好。结论近六年我国出生缺陷发生率总体上呈上升趋势,卫生管理部门应采取更有效的措施以防制出生缺陷的发生。Objective： To forecast the incidence rate of perinatals＇birth defect and provide the theoretical basis for health department. Methods： Based on the incidence rate of perinatals＇birth defect of China from 2000 to 2006, we applied the grey systemic forecast model to fit the incidence rate of perinatals＇birth defect. Results： The grey systemic forecast model is suitable to forecast the incidence rate of perinatals＇ birth defect, and it is testified to be satisfied, listed as. C = 0. 1955 ; P = 1. 000. Conclusions ： We find the established model was satisfied. Our model showed that the incidence rate of perinatals＇birth defect appears a ascending trend on the whole during the recent 6 years. The health management department should take more effective measures to prevent the occurrence of birth defect.

关 键 词：出生缺陷 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R174[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]