关于未来中国劳动力是否短缺的一个证明  

A Demonstration of Whether There Exists A Lack of Labors in China in The Future

作　　者：陈璋[1] 赵灿[1] 陈家华[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第5期34-40,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：迅速发生的人口转变现象对未来中国社会的各个方面影响深远,经济增长同样受到人口转变的影响。本文以1978-2004年为样本区间,按照2010、2020、2030年劳动力人口预测数,对未来经济增长的4种路径分别进行模拟。通过分析中国经济增长模式和内在源泉,我们发现在未来很长一段时间内,全要素生产率代表的技术进步、劳动力受教育水平的提高和制度变迁等其他因素,都会降低人口转变对未来经济增长可能的影响,由人口转变导致的劳动年龄人口减少不太可能对中国未来年均经济增长7.2%的目标构成较大瓶颈,而有可能的瓶颈应该是资本存量能否继续维持目前这种高速增长、低效利用的状态。在未来的经济增长中,我们急需改变对资本投入的过度依赖,发挥技术进步和制度改革的力量,以减缓外部冲击对宏观经济的整体影响。The surgeoning demography transition phenomenon will bring heavy affects upon China＇s society in every aspect, so does the economic growth. This essay sets the data from 1978 to 2004 as sample so as to analyze Chinese economic growth pattern and the foundation. Meanwhile, by means of the prediction data of the labor population in 2010, 2020 and 2030, we simulate four kinds of growth paths of China＇ s economy in the future. Then we discover that technical advancement represented by total factor productivity, the improvement of the labor＇s educational level and other system factor will reduce the possible influence on economic growth. The decrease of labor population aroused by the demography transition will almost not form the bottleneck to the growth rate goal at 7.2% per year set by the China central government. The probable bottleneck should be whether capital deposits can maintain the state that the economy grows fast, but the capital were used in low efficiency. In the future economic growth, we should change overdependence on capital input, exert the power of technical advancement and system reform, so as to alleviate the overall influence of external impacts on the macro economy.

关 键 词：人口转变 资本存量 人力资本 经济增长 路径模拟 

分 类 号：F122[经济管理—世界经济]