无锡市工业SO_2污染变化的空间特征及影响因素的分解分析  

Decomposition Analysis on Spatial Features and Determinants of Changes in Industrial Pollution:A Case Study on Industrial SO_2 Emissions of Wuxi City

作　　者：程磊磊[1] 尹昌斌[1] 米健[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第5期128-132,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科研院所社会公益研究专项(2004DIB4J161)

摘　　要：运用分解分析方法对工业污染变化进行地区分解、影响因素分解和综合分解,建立包含地区和影响因素的工业污染分解模型,并且应用该模型对2001-2005年无锡市工业SO2排放量的变化进行实证分析。分析结果表明,无锡市工业SO2排放量的变化主要是江阴的经济规模、能耗技术和排污技术,市区的经济规模和能耗技术,以及宜兴的经济规模共同作用的结果。从地区来看,无锡市工业SO2排放量的变化主要源于江阴,而宜兴的影响逐渐增强,市区的影响趋于减弱。从影响因素来看,三个地区的经济规模效应都为正,而且显著大于其他三种效应;经济结构是影响力最弱的因素;技术变迁有显著影响,但在三个地区间存在差异性。为了同时实现经济发展和工业SO2减排,无锡需要采取节能减排措施以降低(特别是江阴的)工业SO2排放强度。This paper carries out regional decomposition, determinant decomposition and integrated decomposition which combines regional and determinant factors, and establishes industrial pollution decomposition model. The model is applied to analyze changes in industrial SO2 emissions of Wuxi from 2001 to 2005, and the empirical results indicate that changes in industrial SO2 emissions mainly result from changes in Jiangyin＇ s economic scale, energy cousumption technology and pollution abating technology, urban Districts＇ economic scale and energy consumption technology, as well as Yixing＇s economic scale. In the light of regional influence, Jiangyin dominates changes in industrial SO, emissions of the whole city. Yixing＇s influence gradually strengthens, while urban districts＇ influence weakens. In the light of determinant, economic scale effect in the three regions is positive, and is significantly bigger than other effects. Economic structure is the weakest among the fottr factors. Technical effects vary regionally. In order to promote economic development and reduce industrial SO2 emissions in Wuxi simultaneously, the intensity of industrial SO2 emissions （especially in Jiangyin） needs to be alleviated through energy conservation or pollution abatement.

关 键 词：工业污染 分解分析 多地区 影响因素 综合分解 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]