影响嘉兴台汛期降水的大气环流因子分析  

The Atmosphere Circulation Factors’Analysis for Effect on Jiaxing’s Typhoon Season Precipitation

作　　者：陆琛莉 范晓红[2] 陈优平[2] 李云泉[2] 

机构地区：[1]平湖市气象局,浙江平湖314201 [2]嘉兴市气象局,浙江嘉兴314050

出　　处：《科技通报》2008年第5期606-611,共6页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局(2005YB07)

摘　　要：嘉兴8～9月台汛期降水与台风影响关系密切,台风影响多,降水正常到偏多,台风影响少,降水正常到偏少。利用NCEP500hPa月平均高度资料对大气环流进行合成分析,发现副高偏强(弱),有(不)利于台风影响嘉兴,台汛期降水和副高正相关,与乌拉尔高压反相关。由此建立了嘉兴台汛期降水的大气环流模型,该模型可概括历史降水的大致情况,概括率达94.2%。The typhoon season precipitation of Aug. and Sep. has close relations with typhoon＇s effectting on Jiaxing region. When there are more influencing typhoons, the precipitation stays on normal or higher level ;While there are less influencing typhoons, the precipitation stays on normal or lower level. Through the synthesis analysis of atmospheric circumfluence using NCEP 500hPa monthly mean height, it is found that the stronger （/weaker）subtropical high above Japan increases （/decreases） the chance of typhoon affects Jiaxing and brings more （/less） precipitation. The typhoon season precipitation and subtropical high is being connected, with Ural Mountain high counter-correlations. According to these two factors, an atmospheric circulation model is established which can reflect the typhoon season precipitation of Aug. and Sep. in Jiaxing region and can cover 94.2% of the total situations.

关 键 词：台汛期降水 因子分析 大气环流模型 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]