中国钢铁产业集中趋势的经济效应分析  

Economic Analysis of Chinese Steel Industry with a Concentration Trend

作　　者：王腊芳[1] 赖明勇[1] 张葆君[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第9期88-92,共5页Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大课题(07&ZD017);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70603011)

摘　　要：利用中国动态可计算一般均衡模型,通过引入规模经济和不完全竞争,刻画了中国钢铁产业的多寡头垄断新格局;并通过将产业集中度指标CR10和古诺模型均衡解联系起来,实现了将产业集中度引入模型的目的.基于CR10设定了3个模拟场景,分析了这3个模拟场景对中国宏观经济和钢铁产业的影响.模拟结果显示,钢铁产业集中度对中国宏观经济的影响和初始集中度的大小有关.钢铁产业的利润随着企业规模的扩大而上升,但规模经济会随着集中度的进一步提高而逐渐不具有明显优势.Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China, this paper discussed the oligopoly of Chinese steel industry through the introduction of scale economics and imperfect competition. From the basic Cournot equation, we have derived a link between the share weighted price-cost mark-up across all firms in steel industry and the CR10 index. Based on CR10 index, we have set three shocks, and then analyzed the impacts of the shocks on China＇ s macro economy and steel industries. Simulation results have shown that the relationship between the degree of the concentration and GDP is relative to the initial degree of concentration. The profit of the steel industry increases with the expansion of industrial scale, but scale economics will not have obvious advantages when the degree of concentration is enhanced.

关 键 词：钢铁产业 产业经济 经济分析 竞争 计算机模拟 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F038.2