城市开发风险的系统分析和应对策略  

A System Analysis and Coping Strategy for Risks in Urban Development

作　　者：夏南凯[1] 宋海瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（社会科学版）》2008年第4期39-46,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：在我国社会快速转型以及城市开发风险事故不断出现的形势下,本文从认识论的角度入手,结合自然科学与社会科学研究的成果,从偶然性、必然性、可预测性特征及其相互关系对城市开发风险进行系统分析,将城市开发风险分为持续性风险和突发性风险两种类型,进而提出体现城市开发活动特征、基于问题和事件的风险形成机制——PI组合分析法,并由此得出城市开发风险管理的8项应对策略。From the view of epistemology, linking with natural and social science harvest, putting urban development into the background of rapid social transformation and vast urban development accidents, the authors analyze the chanciness, inevitability, predictability and their relations systemically, divide urban development into durative risks and paroxysmal risks, then bring forward the PI methods suit for urban development based on Problem and Issue, educe 8 coping strategies of risk management in urban development.

关 键 词：城市开发 风险管理 系统分析 机制分析 认识论 

分 类 号：TU981-01[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]