高校数字图书馆图书流量的时间序列分布趋势及预测分析  

University Digital Library Flow of Time Series Analysis of Trends and Forecasts

作　　者：吴红艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中原工学院,郑州450007

出　　处：《中原工学院学报》2008年第4期3-7,12,共6页Journal of Zhongyuan University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50272061)

摘　　要：提出用起伏型时间序列法对数字图书馆图书流量进行动态分析.以2006-2008年某高校使用万方数据资源系统周图书流量动态为研究数据,对数字图书馆图书流量中的登陆、检索、浏览、下载量的周动态进行建模、分解与模拟,结果表明,起伏型时间序列分析方法可应用于数字图书馆图书流量动态模拟.The Analysis of wave type time series is a new method, which is used to simulate the data of the digital library book flow in a university library in the paper. With the dynamics of WanFang data （info site） in the library in 2006-2008 as research objective, the method of wave type time series is used to simulate the dynamics of the landing, searches, browse, down load and so on, and the dynamics models of the landing, searches, browse, down load and so on in this paper. The results are satisfactory, which means that the analysis of wave type time series can be used to simulate the dynamics of the data of the digital library book flow. The study will enrich the methods for simulating the data of the digital library book flow.

关 键 词：决策分析 动态模拟 时间序列法 数字图书馆 图书流量 

分 类 号：G35[文化科学—情报学]