基于序列投资的汽车项目投资决策模型  

Automobile project investment decision model based on serial-step-investment

作　　者：张夕勇[1] 丁慧平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2008年第4期52-58,75,共8页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70472002);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20030004022)

摘　　要：汽车项目投资具有投资大和较高的不确定性特点,一般分阶段进行,可以视为一个序列投资.多个投资阶段之间存在着相互影响,前一阶段的投资应考虑到后续各阶段投资的可能性.以汽车项目投资为背景,运用二叉树决策方法建立了多阶段的序列投资评价模型,并应用实物期权理论对序列投资中各阶段可能创造的价值进行了分析.通过构建基于序列投资评价的汽车项目投资决策模型,可以对汽车企业投资进行评价,有助于做出有效的决策.Generally speaking, the investment in auto industry is distributed into many steps, which work on each other. The former step is based on the probability of all the following investment, so we can say the in- vestment in auto industry is a serial-step-investment. This paper establishes an investment valuation model based on serial-step-investment and analysis the solution of this model using real option theory, binomial model and stochastic walk theory. Through this automobile project investment decision model based on serial-step-in- vestment, automobile enterprises can make a more accurate and more comprehensive project investment valua- tion, and then make the valid decision.

关 键 词：投资决策 序列投资 汽车项目 实物期权 二叉树模型 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]