基于四阶段预测理论的公路交通量预测研究  

Research on the Forecast of the Highway Traffic Volume Based on the Theory of the Four Stages Forecast

作　　者：田智慧[1] 王世杰 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省交通规划勘察设计院,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2008年第3期133-136,共4页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题资助项目(2007BAH08B06)

摘　　要：区域公路交通量的科学预测是区域公路网规划的前提和基础.在分析了我国从1980年以来公路交通工具的变化后,指出今后应以小汽车作为公路交通量衡量的标准,在此基础上,运用四阶段预测分析理论,研究和建立了适合河南省特点的公路交通量预测模型和方法,对河南省公路交通量的需求生成、交通分布、交通方式的选择和交通分配进行了预测和分析,并用郑州—漯河高速公路、漯河—驻马店高速公路2007年交通量的实际数据进行验证,结果表明,采用四阶段分析预测理论建立的预测模型较好地预测了河南省的公路交通量.The scientific forecast of the volume of highway traffic is a premise and basis of the area highway network plans. The paper points out that the volume of traffic measures should be based on the car traffic volume in the future after the change of the highway means of transportation in our country from 1980 age had been analysed. Then, the paper studies and builds the forecast model and method of the highway volume of traffic being suitable for the Henan province characteristic by applying four stages to forecast analytical theory and also carries out the forecast of the volume of traffic need generation, traffic distribution, traffic way choice and traffic assignment. The author verified the forecast model and method with the data of the volume of traffic of 2007 of Zhengzhou-Luohe express highway. The result indicates that the forecast model based on the theory of the four stages forecast is comparatively suitable for the forecasting of the volume of the highway traffic in Henan province.

关 键 词：公路交通量 四阶段预测理论 河南省 公路交通量预测 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]