济南、威海成山头近60a冬季平均气温的小波分析  

Wavelet analysis of variations of recent 60 years winter temperatures in Jinan and Weihai Chengshantou

作　　者：邹良超[1] 肖尚斌[1,2] 倪林[1] 张京穗[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木水电学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《海洋科学》2008年第9期29-36,共8页Marine Sciences

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(20070421132);三峡大学资助项 目(2007KF12)

摘　　要：利用济南和威海成山头1951～2006年的冬季气温的观测资料,用 MHF(墨西哥帽函数)小波分析了两地冬季气温的多时间尺度变化特征并对两地出现的极端气候进行了一定分析。结果表明近60 a 来,济南冬季年平均气温(0.82℃)比威海成山头冬季年平均气温(0.53℃)高,济南和威海成山头两地冬季气温倾向率分别为0.431℃/10a 和0.3590C/10a;两地在较大时间尺度上,突变点位置比较接近,在较小时间尺度上,演变略有差异,济南冬季气温变化比威海成山头略快;在振动周期上,济南的冬季平均气温变化以5,18 a 左右周期振动较强,威海成山头的冬季平均气温变化则以4,18 a 左右为较强周期振动;在未来一段时间内,两地冬季气温将保持偏高状态,但都有转低的趋势;出现极端气候时有明显的群发性和阶段性,成山头出现极端气候时情况更加恶劣。Based on the monthly mean winter temperature data from 1951 to 2006 of Jinan and Chengshantou climate-stations. The multi-time scales characteristics of winter temperature and the extreme climate had been analyzed using MHF（Mxican Hat Function ）.It was shown that the average temperature in winter of Jinan （0.82 ℃ ） was higher than that in Chengshantou （0.53 ℃ ） ; in recent 60 years, the tend-rates of winter temperature in Jinan and Chengshantou were 0.431 ℃/10 a and 0.359 ℃/10 arespectively; the mutation positions were chosen to each other in larger time scales; in smaller time scales,the evolution showed some sightly differences;the winter temperature changes of Jinan was slightly faster than that of Chengshantou ; 5 a, 18 a period-oscillation of winter temperature variations in Jinan is the strongest, and 4 a, 18 a period-oscillation of summer precipitation variations in Chengshantou is the strongest; in the coming period, winter temperatures of the two places may still be high,but have a lowering trend; throughout the whole time,the extreme weather contains obvious staggered features;the extreme weather in Chengshantou was even worse than in Jinan.

关 键 词：冬季气温 气候倾向率 MHF小波 气候变化 

分 类 号：P423.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]