气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架  

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in China: Screening for Adaptation and Management

作　　者：夏军[1] Thomas Tanner 任国玉[3] 程晓陶[4] 王金霞[1] 王忠静[5] 严茂超[1] 刘晓洁[1] Ian Holman 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]Institute of Development Studies,University of Sussex [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪减灾研究所,北京100038 [5]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [6]Natural Resources Department,Cranfield University,Cranfield,Bedfordshire,MK43OAL,UK

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第4期215-219,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：2007年国家发展和改革委员会"中-英气候变化"国际合作项目;科技部中澳合作项目(2006DFA21890);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-126)资助

摘　　要：通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括:未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。Based on the project ＂Screening for Climate Change Adaptation＂, an adaptation assessment and management framework applied to impacts of climate change on water resources in China was developed. It includes the qualitative description and analysis, semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses of the potential impacts of future climate change on water resources, and the assessment of adaptation options. According to different climatic regions and different problems on water resources, four case studies have been processed in the projects. By setting up different objectives and problems, a comprehensive research on climate change adaptation management is demonstrated. The principles, framework and methodology of assessing climate change impacts and adaptation are developed. This research provides an effective framework tool and methodology for the planning and risk management of water resources under impacts of future climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源 适应性管理 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]