基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报思路探讨  

Discuss on monitoring and forecasting of landslide disasters based on contingency theory

作　　者：胡华[1] 俞登荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学土木工程系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2008年第3期38-41,45,共5页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50678155);福建省高等学校新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助

摘　　要：文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。Basic theories and application technology condition of geological Disasters, advantages and disadvantages of moni- toring and prediction criterion for landslide disasters are reviewed. The new method of monitoring and predicting landslide disasters is proposed, and the new method is based on the Decision-making Method of information processing. The contin- gency characteristics, environmental factors and decision factors which cause Landslide disasters are analysed, and the con- cept model of monitoring and predicting landslide disasters is established. The dynamic and satisfactory principle that should followed in predicting and deciding are further discussed, this research provides theoretical basis and technical ways for us to do better in monitoring and predicting geological disasters.

关 键 词：权变理论 滑坡灾害 监测预报 预报判据 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]