人民币新汇制改革的贸易效应之谜——基于我国对外经济贸易特征视角的协整研究和脉冲分解  

The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate System Reform on Trade:Co-integration Research and Impulse Decomposition Based on Foreign Economy and Trade Characteristics in China

作　　者：陈玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西梧州学院经济与工商管理系,广西梧州543002

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2008年第9期60-65,共6页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：曹垂龙教授主持的国家社会科学基金项目"人民币汇制改革绩效及进一步改革研究"(07XJY036)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：关于人民币汇制改革在我国贸易均衡方面的表现,文章运用Johansen模型揭示出:人民币升值是近两年贸易顺差形成的主要推动因素,马歇尔-勒纳条件在我国并不适用;依托于我国现行的经济贸易特征,未来一段时间我国仍将唱响贸易顺差的主旋律;在人民币加速升值的今天注重升值节奏对于保持我国贸易收支的稳定不容忽视,这一观点通过脉冲响应函数与方差分解得到了有效印证。As to the effect of RMB exchange rate system reform on trade balance, this paper, based on the characteristics of China＇ s foreign trade and the ＂transfer effect＂ caused by international industrial transfer and by using Johansen model, concludes that： Firstly, RMB appreciation is the main impetus of the trade surplus in the past two years; Secondly, Marchall-Lerner condition is not applicable in China; Thirdly, China will still experience trade surplus in the future, depending on our country＇ s present economy and trade characteristics; Finally, the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the trade balance has already been notable, so attention should be paid to the appreciation rhythm in order to keep the trade balance stable at present days when RMB accelerates appreciation.

关 键 词：人民币汇制改革 贸易效应 Johansen协整模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]