流感超额死亡率的数学模型研究  

Study on excess mortality of influenza by mathematics models

作　　者：胡爱香[1] 余宏杰[2] 叶冬青[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,安徽合肥230032 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心疾病控制与应急处理办公室,北京100050

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2008年第4期372-375,共4页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

摘　　要：流感的季节性流行对人类健康和社会经济造成较大影响,特别是对老年人及慢性基础病患者。而由于流感本身存在种种特殊性,导致很难直接测算流感对死亡的影响。基于流感流行的季节性特征,研究中常使用数学模型的方法,测算流感的超额死亡率,来间接评价流感的影响。本文回顾、分析并比较了既往研究中常用于测算流感超额死亡率的4种数学模型的基本原理、使用方法及应用条件。Seasonal influenza leads to great impact on human health and economy, especially for old people and people with underlying conditions. It is difficult to calculate the burden caused by influenza directly, as influenza is a kind of special disease. Mathematics models are usually used to calculate the excess mortality of influenza indirectly, based on the seasonal activity characteristic of influenza. This paper reviews, analyses and compares the basic theory, usage and application conditions of 4 kinds of mathematics models.

关 键 词：流感 死亡率 流行病学 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]