基于主成分分析与谱分析的房地产市场周期研究  

Beijing real estate market cycle analysis based on principle componential and spectral analyses

作　　者：张红[1] 谢娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第9期1404-1407,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70673050)

摘　　要：为研究北京房地产市场周期选用1992—2005年的统计数据,采用主成分分析与谱分析结合的方法。在建立房地产市场供给类和需求类指标体系的基础上,通过因子分析提取主成分,进而确定两类合成指标;利用谱密度函数来分析合成指标的各主要频率分量,根据谱峰值对合成指标分别进行周期识别。结果表明:北京市房地产市场存在为期近3年的周期,且供求关系基本均衡;但从长期来看,供给方面还存在为期7年的次周期,需求则发展平稳,即北京房地产价格存在长期上涨趋势。The Beijing real estate market cycle was analyzed based on statistical data from 1992 2005 using principle componential analysis and spectral analysis techniques. The indicators of real estate market supply and demand cycles were analyzed to find the principle factors influencing the supply and demand and to identify key indicators of the supply and demand. The spectral density function was used to distinguish the main frequency components of each indicator. The peak in the spectral density curve was used to identify the corresponding cycle. The results show that the main supply and demand cycles in the Beijing real estate market were both about 3 years long so the supply and demand were basically equilibrium. Over a relatively long period, the supply cycle also had a secondary 7 years cycle while the demand market developed steadily, so that the real estate market prices in Beijing rose steadily over the long run.

关 键 词：房地产市场 周期 主成分分析 谱分析 因子分析 频率分量 谱密度 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]