饮用水源污染风险评价的模糊-随机模型研究  

Integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of drinking water resources contamination

作　　者：王丽萍[1] 周晓蔚[1] 李继清[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院水资源与水利水电工程研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第9期1449-1452,1457,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579019);武汉大学国家重点实验室开放基金(whu2005B018)

摘　　要：为了综合量化富营养化水体的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性,评价水源污染风险,该文以微囊藻毒素为风险指示物,采用随机数值模拟预报水体中污染物浓度,并用模糊隶属度函数表征污染物的环境质量标准和毒性标准,建立了模糊-随机风险评价模型。针对污染物存在的环境风险、健康风险和生态风险,建立模糊集规则以获取综合风险水平,从而得到风险水平与决策行动的关系。将该模型用于某饮用水源2种不同环境质量标准的情景分析,证明了模型的可行性和有效性。In order to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with water resources contamination and evaluate water pollution risk, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment （IFSRA） approach was developed. This model forecasted pollutant concentration in water bodies, using risk indicators （microcystins） and numerical simulations, while the fuzzy membership functions characterizing the environmental quality and toxicity standards associated with the pollutants. The environmental guideline-based risk, health risk, and ecological risk due to microcystins ingestion were systematically examined for access to comprehensive risk levels through fuzzy sets rules, hence the relationship between risk levels and the action decision was obtained. The developed IFSRA was applied to a eutrophic- contaminated surface water system in China for analysis of two scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines. The result of risk assessment proves the feasibility and effectiveness of model.

关 键 词：富营养化 风险评价 模糊集 随机模拟 不确定性 微囊藻毒素 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]